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Trump wins 520 electoral votes?
Trent England • Nov 07, 2024

Over the last fifteen years, seventeen states and the District of Columbia have joined the National Popular Vote interstate compact. NPV is an attempt to nullify the Electoral College in favor of a direct election of the president, but it only takes effect if joined by states that control 270 electoral votes. Right now that total is 209.

Yet there is no reason for those states to wait. If they really believe that the national popular vote is the only legitimate way to choose the president and vice president, why not act now—before the election is certified and the electors meet—to put their money where their mouth is?

Every NPV state went for Harris. If those states actually followed through on their supposed dedication to the national popular vote concept, they would give their 209 electoral votes to the Republican ticket. That would bring the Trump-Vance total to 520 electoral votes. Harris would receive just 18 electoral votes: 13 from Virginia, 4 from New Hampshire, and 1 from Nebraska’s second congressional district.

 

 

Of course, NPV states can’t actually do this. While they’ve passed the compact, it’s not in effect. Their current laws select electors based on the in-state vote. That means their electors will be Democrats. Then again, those Democrat-nominated electors could endorse the concept of a national popular vote by casting ballots for Trump and Vance (at least in states without “faithless elector” laws).

There is really no reason for the NPV compact to have a trigger in the first place. Consider that without the trigger, all an NPV state could do is either stay the same, join the winning side (if the electoral and popular votes are the same, like this year), or flip the outcome to the popular vote winner (if the electoral and popular vote results were different). The only reasons to have a trigger are to avoid public scrutiny of the compact, including of its many technical defects and lacunae.