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In recent years, some have argued that the Electoral College is slipping further out of reach for Democrats. The upcoming 2030 census doesn’t favor the party, and President Trump’s plan to exclude illegal immigrants from the next count could further reduce the electoral votes of solidly blue states like California, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois. Some red states could also lose votes, such as Texas and Florida, but unlike their blue counterparts, both have seen strong population growth over the last decade. 

So is the Electoral College biased against Democrats? No. Over the last century, it has elected nearly equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans. In fact, before 2016, it was common to see articles claiming the Democratic Party had an Electoral College advantage.

So, why do Democrats’ future electoral prospects now seem dim? The answer lies in one of the Electoral College’s greatest strengths: it rewards population growth and coalition building.

Americans have been fleeing high-tax states (especially California and New York) in search of lower costs, safer communities, and better opportunities. At the same time, red states have grown by emphasizing affordability, public safety, and a stronger quality of life. Popular positions lead to population growth, relative to other states, and an increase in electoral might.

This shift is unlikely to be permanent. History suggests that at some point, the Democratic Party will listen more closely to voters and make the changes needed to build a broader coalition. This would likely mean finding policy positions that improve public safety, reduce the cost of living, and stake out moderate positions on social issues. This evolution, should it happen, will help the party reach out beyond its urban strongholds and into “middle America.”

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis joked during a press conference addressing this dichotomy:

“As Governor of Florida, I get this great cheat code. All I got to do is look to New York, Illinois, California, then do the opposite.”

The Electoral College is doing exactly what it was designed to do: encouraging both major parties to consider the needs of actual Americans. Rewarding population growth with greater political power is democratic, after all. The problem isn’t the system—even when one party is struggling to respond to its incentives.