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How concerned should Americans be about the National Popular Vote interstate compact (NPV) taking effect before the 2024 presidential election?

There are currently 15 states plus DC that have joined the compact, controlling 196 electoral votes (this will likely drop to 194 this year after congressional reapportionment). NPV legislation is pending in at least 11 states, which control another 143 electoral votes.

In theory, NPV could take effect with just three more states—but this would have to include Texas and Florida. That is unlikely, but it’s worth noting that such a small minority of states could impose NPV on everyone else.

Because NPV draws most of its support from the political far left (although there are those on the left who strongly oppose NPV), it is more focused on states like Maine, Minnesota, and Virginia where Democrats currently control the governorship and one or both legislative chambers. (They just lost for the second year in a row in Virginia, but will likely return in 2022.) Still, NPV spends lavishly to lobbyRepublicans and has had their legislation introduced in every state at least once.

The bottom line is that NPV is a major threat to the Constitution and the integrity of presidential elections. Just a few more states could bring it close to taking effect, causing uncertainty and encouraging a federal takeover of elections. And six or seven states—still a minority—could put the compact into effect. At that point, state and federal lawsuits would drag the nation into a constitutional crisis; the Electoral College might be gone for good.