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For years, the National Popular Vote lobbying campaign has peddled polls that claim it is overwhelmingly popular. Of course, the group pays for these polls, and most people take them with many grains of salt. But now we have a real test: the Colorado vote on NPV in the form of Prop. 113.

At this time, Prop. 113 is slightly ahead and looks, unfortunately, like it may prevail. Whatever happens, it will be very close. The result in Colorado will put the lie to all of these NPV polls.

When NPV first came to Colorado, in 2008, the state was purple. NPV did a poll, which it describes on its website. The top-line claim was that a whopping 68% of Colorado voters supported NPV. Granted, this was over a decade ago—but the state has gone blue since then.

As I write this, Joe Biden is winning Colorado with nearly 56% of the vote, but the NPV measure has just 52.4% of the vote. In other words, it can’t be just Republican voters who oppose NPV. There were many independents and Democrats who voted in Colorado against the NPV compact and for the Electoral College.