Blog

The nationwide popular vote margin in 1880 was less than 10,000 votes, or just about .1 percent. Neither candidate had a majority, which is often the case in close presidential elections. Yet James Garfield won a resounding victory, with 214 electoral votes to Winfield Hancock’s 155. There was no question who won, let alone any need for a recount. The Electoral College often amplifies the popular vote result and bolsters the legitimacy of plurality winners. 

There are many examples. The Electoral College amplified both of Barack Obama’s victories. And in 1992, when Bill Clinton received just 43 percent of the popular vote, he won over 68 percent of the electoral votes. This was because, despite Ross Perot’s relatively effective independent candidacy, Clinton had a broad coalition—he won not just liberal states like California and New York, but also states like Georgia, Missouri, and Montana.

Contrary to all this, Patrick Valencia, writing in Harvard Law School’s Journal on Legislation, created an example of what the 1960 election might have looked like if something like the National Popular Vote interstate compact was in place at the time.

It is Tuesday, November 8, 1960—election night—and millions of Americans crowd their television sets as … anchor Chet Huntley tells Americans watching that it will be an early night—not because there is a clear winner, but because nothing will be decided that night. Returns have begun to pour in, and it is clear that the popular vote will be as close as it has ever been. In fact, Huntley reports there are already two lawsuits set to be filed the next day in New York City and Chicago by voters contesting the counting of the votes in local precincts. Reminding voters of the new electoral system, under which a minority of states possessing over 269 electoral votes will decide the election by binding their electors to the winner of the national popular vote, Huntley predicts that, as votes are counted and recounted and lawsuits are litigated and relitigated, this election will not be decided until mid-to-late December. …

In reality, the 1960 presidential election was decided easily. Despite the razor-thin 0.17% margin in the national popular vote, President Kennedy defeated Nixon in a landslide Electoral College victory, 303-219.

While there are counter examples—elections where the Electoral College result was tighter than the popular vote—they occur far less often. Most of the time, the Electoral College makes it easier to know who has won and gives the winner greater legitimacy as president.

Part of this article is adapted from the Encounter Broadside book, Why We Must Defend the Electoral College, by Trent England.

Learn more about the Electoral College at ElectoralCollege101.com.