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Seventeen blue states have passed legislation to join the National Popular Vote interstate compact (NPV). Yet the compact is not in effect in any of these states, and will not be anytime soon. This is because it has a “trigger,” and takes effect only if passed by enough states that they together control a majority of electoral votes. Virginia may join NPV soon, giving it 222 of the 270 required electoral votes. Yet its next step may be backwards—loosing electoral votes as a result of state repeals or the reapportionment of congressional seats.

In fact, NPV is sure to lose electoral votes after the next census. The Constitution requires a census every ten years in order to redistribute congressional seats among the states. Since it launched in 2007, NPV has lost electoral votes after each census. But 2030 is set to be the biggest loss yet, with analysts predicting NPV states will lose nine congressional districts and thus lose nine electoral votes.

Beyond that, the state of Maine already nearly repealed NPV last year. A bill to remove the state from the compact passed the House but then failed narrowly in the Senate. In that state, and in Minnesota, there has always been bipartisan opposition to NPV and the original bills passed with the narrowest of margins. Even those who dislike the Electoral College often acknowledge the poor drafting of NPV and its many dangerous gaps.

NPV was always less of a plan than a protest. It was easy for legislators to support it when there was no chance of it taking effect. Yet the fact that the compact could go into or out of effect without any legislative action, based on the results of a census, is just one more example of NPV’s inherent instability.